The Apocalyptic Style of Geopolitics

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I've narrowed down my PhD topics to three choices: one will become the dissertation, the other two will become other projects (books or multimedia projects). The first concerns the 'relational' turn in Counterterrorism Studies, and the implications for the psychology of suicide bombers, terrorists, and networks. Carl Jung's Aion (1954) has been helpful, although the War on Terror has a more complex cultural matrix than Classical Greek and early Judeo-Christian sources. Monash's David Wright-Neville commented to me recently that Jungian scholars have done some of the most interesting work on the post-September 11 'politics of fear'. A couple of quick Web links:

∙ 'On the Apollo vs Dionysian Conflict' (Malcolm Wm Timbers): Timbers notes the 'messianic' nature of religions and how charismatic individuals can 'awaken' archetypes in followers. "A terrorist is an individual who is in a state of possession by an unconscious factor that is reacting negatively against something that provoked it," he observes, a description which parallels Charles T. Tart's description of dreaming you are awake. "A possessed terrorist sincerely believes that his evil deeds, if not in service to the highest good, represent a necessary sacrifice against a greater evil": Timbers' comment echoes how recent terrorists---Timothy McVeigh, Ted Kaczynski, Mohammed Atta---have framed their actions in opposition to an Other which threatens to engulf the individual's identity: Great Power politics, environmental catastrophe, 'decline' narratives of Islam. "In order to understand the psychology of terrorism one must understand that the terrorist believes that his belief system represents the One and Absolute good": failure to comprehend Plato's Agathon.

∙ 'Focusing on Shadow Theory/Causes of Terrorism' (JoAnn Murphy): Murphy suggests the Western media's depiction of terrorists is partly rooted in a Shadow dynamic; that Cold War 'triumphalism' was a case of Shadow blindness, which September 11 remanifested; and that we need to collectively stop projecting and 'own' our Shadow.

∙ 'Terrorism: A Jungian View' (John Van Eenwyk): Eenwyk defines terrorism as the fusion of post-traumatic stress syndrome and the eruption of the Jungian Shadow. This definition has implications for Schema Therapy and newer, still controversial treatment modalities like Eye Movement Desensitization Routine. Eenwyk's analysis of images parallels Andrew Silke's insight on how 'contagion' violence may influence potential terrorists. Randal Marlin and Jacques Ellul have further insights on sociological propaganda as a motivational force. Finally, Eenwyk closes with advice on four strategies of dealing with the Shadow (engagement; incubating the opposites; encouraging transcendence; monitoring the unconscious for behaviours, dreams, and fate) that are worth further investigation.

I quickly assembled the following reading list for a class (21 March 2005) on ‘leaderless resistance’ and ‘terror networks’ as part of Monash University’s Masters of Counter-Terrorism. The readings included selections from John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt’s Networks and Netwars anthology; Louis Beam’s classic on Leaderless Resistance; Simon Garfinkel’s analysis Leaderless Resistance Today; Maura Conway’s study Reality Bytes (on ‘terrorist use of the Internet’); and Beverly Hill and George E. Marsh II’s study Recruitment by Extremist Groups on the Internet. Three resources not on the list are Gabriel Weisman’s www.terror.net and Cyberterrorism reports; and the PBS Frontline episode CyberWar!. This list was assembled and presented before the Red Lake High School shooting incident later that same day. Hill and Marsh II’s study foresaw why shooter Jeff Weise visited Nazi.org a year before the shooting took place (Weise’s postings, writings and animated film).

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I started Monash's Masters of Counter-Terrorism Studies several weeks ago. The early classes have covered definitions of terrorism, terrorist profiling, the constructivist school of international relations and norms.

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Current Reading: Johan Galtung's Peace by Peaceful Means: Peace and Conflict, Development and Civilization (Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, 1996).

I'm exploring another reality tunnel: the Middle East Forum's perspective on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Iraq War and Islamist terrorism. Amongst the fiery rhetoric and group beliefs (on the US-Israel relationship) are some useful insights. I'm also struck by how MEF, like any group, begins each meeting with a plea for its own survival. MEF also cites a Boston Globe commentary that founder Daniel Pipes gave an 'early warning' on Islamist terrorism that if heeded would have prevented the September 11 terrorist attacks. This has become the norm in conservative American politics.

From a note to Sohail Inayatullah's Macrohistory course:

The BBC recently screened Adam Curtis' controversial three-part documentary series The Power of Nightmares, a genealogy of how the Political Islamist (Sayyed Qutb) and American Neoconservative (Leo Strauss) worldviews have informed the War on Terror. Curtis created debate.

∙ Part 1: Baby It's Cold Outside video stream
∙ Part 2: The Phantom Victory video stream
∙ Part 3: The Shadows In The Cave video stream

Curtis posits this as an 'intergroup conflict' (Howard Bloom) between two elite groups of Vipra (intellectuals) whose nightmarish visions reshape the political landscape. Pareto and Mosca's point about elites is an undercurrent to episode one. This is a good example of the Critical layer in Causal Layered Analysis (applied to the Western security discourse of counterterrorism) with satirical imagery and editing. Curtis' thesis has been rejected by some American conservatives.

A central point in episode 2 is that the West's understanding of Al Qaeda came from the FBI's 1998 case into the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Under US laws the FBI needed to posit a criminal organization (a la the Mafia) to try Bin Laden. Curtis interviews author Jason Burke, who argues that Al Qaeda must be understood as a loose network underpinned by an idea, rather than a hierarchical organization with bin Laden as leader.

Curtis highlights Sarkar's point that Vipra may end up controlling Ksattriyans (warriors) via ideologies. The 'current of transmission' from Sayyed Qutb to Ayman Al-Zawahiri is documented. Curtis doesn't mention Fred Polak's important work on social imaging; he does observe that both groups had success because of their dystopian future visions---and that they gained currency when the general public became skeptical of linear visions (particularly the Comtean 'faith' in science and progress). Near the third episode's end some of Curtis' interviewees talk about the shift from Positivist 'evidence-based' science to 'What If?' speculation---the latter is not explored, and would have been if Curtis had been aware of Futures Studies and Counterfactual History.

I've started another blog at Loudwire that deals with Disinformation editorial issues and digital reportage.</p>

Slate has two great 'backgrounder' pieces on PLO chairman Yasser Arafat: Survivor Palestine by William Bass, and Arafat's Legacy by David Kenner. The latter has links to further articles by Richard Falk and Robert Wright.

The other highlight of today's research was ASIO's Annual Report for 2003-04 (PDF), which I'm reading through now. The format suggests that Australia's domestic intelligence agency has adopted Kaplan and Norton's Balanced Scorecard for reporting purposes. The report style suggests the Minto Pyramid Principle (used by McKinsey and other blue-chip consulting firms).

British documentary film-maker Adam Curtis has caused a furore in Britain, claiming in his three-part series The Power of Nightmares that Al Qaeda has been used to create a climate of fear in Western nation-states after the September 11 attacks.

This suggests the potential for a Foucaultian or Nietzschean genealogy of how the 'terror network' meme arose, how it was perceived by different governments as a threat, and how it has shaped counterterrorism discourse. For scholars Gavin Kendall and Gary Wickham, 'Foucaultian research requires: (a) a 'how' question, (b) a decision about an appropriate archive for investigation; (c) a preference for programmatic texts, and (d) the commitment to keep digging until one finds the relative beginnings of a practice.' (Kendall and Wickham, 'The Foucaultian framework' in Clive Seale, Giampietro Gobo, Jaber F. Gubrium and David Silverman's Qualitative Research Practice, SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks CA, 2004, p. 144).

Kendall and Wickham's criteria sets some useful research limits. The 'how' question is the most interesting. The 'appropriate archive' would have to be 'open source' material---propaganda, security communiques, press coverage, government statements---and rapidly changing Web sites. The 'programmatic texts' would be provided by Osama Bin Laden's fatwas, Sayyid Qutb's philosophy texts (and other religiopolitical theorists), and Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri [see The Road To Al-Qaeda]. Where to locate 'the relative beginnings of a practice' is a difficult one, and depends on the timeframe.

Thomas Cushman's essay The Sociology of Evil and the Destruction of Bosnia landed in my e-mail box this morning. It's not an easy read but a rewarding one. Amongst the insights is Cushman's observation on how the pattern of in-migrating Albanians and out-migrating Serbians affected the conflict, how Milosevic 'inserted himself into history', the link between autonomous agency and evil, and how the mythic past is used as a political symbol to rewrite the present and to create a future vision. Here's a key quote:

'In terms of the temporal plane of history, what distinguishes so much of the social action in the Balkans is the way in which history resides so close to the surface, always ready to be taken into consideration as the justification for this or that act in the present.'

Many of Cushman's insights have been echoed by others, notably Saskia Sassen in Guests and Aliens (New York: The New Press, 1999) and Michael Ignatieff's Blood and Belonging (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1994). Without mentioning it Cushman is using the Futures Triangle to describe his past-present-future relationship.

Current Reading: Mark Wilson and Kenneth Corey's Information Tectonics: Space, Place and Technology in an Electronic Age (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2000).

I'm gathering materials for a future thesis on counter-terrorism and futures studies. I'll be posting some quick comments on articles, books and interviews I come across.

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your_munchkin is on the SBS program Insight (Tuesday, 28 September, 8pm Australian Eastern Standard Time), episode 'First Timers':

'Young people are often criticised by their elders for not caring about social and political issues. In turn, young people criticise politicians about not caring for youth needs. This week, INSIGHT will come to you live from Brisbane, bringing together first time voters and first time candidates. Join Jenny Brockie as she talks to university, TAFE, and school students, workers and farmers about the issues that matter to them.'

After the episode screens in Australia you'll be able to watch a RealPlayer stream and browse a transcript.

Current Reading: Patrick Dunleavy's Authoring a PhD (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003).

Research activities at the Smart Internet Technology CRC and the continuing rise of Disinformation have kept me away. Here's what's been happening:

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Current Reading: Albert-Laszlo Barabasi's Linked: The New Science of Networks (Perseus Publishing, Cambridge MA, 2002).</p>

Melbourne designer John Raptis has written a great review of the BBC series Spooks, which I've been raving about for months, after being tipped off by a colleague at ABIX. I was writing an essay on counterterrorism and post-September 11 geopolitics for the Australian Foresight Institute when the first series screened, and saw how the scriptwriters integrated parts of known incidents into the scenarios and stories.

Congrats to Chris Stewart for launching the new Foresight consultancy Humanagon and landing a contract gig with the Victoria's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Australian readers can check out my analysis of Google's looming Initial Public Offering (IPO) in internet.au (April 2004, pp. 30-34), on newstands now. Thanks to editor Karen Stuart and her Next Media team for a stellar job. Here's a key paragraph as a taster:

'For Stephen Johnson, author of Mind Wide Open (2004), Emergence (2001) and Interface Culture (1997), the Internet 'has created a veritable Cambrian explosion of diversity, funneled directly to your home – social, political, sexual, ethical, you name it.' What the Internet needs are interface tools to manage this complexity and diversity—which reflects human psychological experience—not shut it out. Australian telecommunications expert Trevor Barr reached a similar conclusion about ideological diversity in his book Newmedia.com.au (2000). Barr tells internet.au that what Internet users 'are really hoping for is when Google generates the intelligent, proactive and ubiquitous search engine that does not require them to execute commands for every single search. That's its goldmine for the future.' Could content deals with Nokia, Palm, Sony or Telstra be in the works?'

Readers interested in the film break-out box should check out an excerpt from my essay on Film Scanning (PDF). We're already at work on the next internet.au piece . . .

Critical Friends of Foresight is a student/alumni group linked to Swinburne University's Australian Foresight Institute, which features free lectures and workshops on Foresight methods and issues. This session was announced several weeks before the Madrid bombings in Spain (on 11 March 2004) and have taken on a new relevance. Interested members of the public are welcome to attend; please e-mail me beforehand so I can organize another room booking if the session fills up.

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Current Mood: busy
Current Music: 'Spanish Bombs' ('London Calling', The Clash)

After 18 months of requests gallinahen has relented and begun her own blog.

This morning when the train arrived at Parliament station, in Melbourne's underground loop, I had a flash of deja vu. The same angle and lighting had popped up in a dream I had when I was 14. Maybe it was a pseudo-memory, as many deja vu experiences are. It certainly wasn't of an important moment, like many self-reported experiences claim to be.

Melbourne Herald Sun columnist Andrew Bolt may be comparable to FOX News pundit Bill O'Reilly in his avowed patriotism, little tolerance of fools, and use of stereotypes for mass appeal in Australia. In 2003 Bolt was critiqued by ABC Media Watch's David Marr for leaking pre-war intelligence on Iraq, and criticizing writer and diplomat Alison Broinowski for accepting grant monies. Bolt then took Marr to task for his left-wing imprimatur on what should have been an 'objective' program.</p>

Bolt is in the news again. This time, author Iain Iago analyzes Bolt's post-9/11 columns. For Iago, these are tabloid missives that misquote sources and malign moderate Muslims. Bolt counter-argues that Iago has left out some crucial material. Here's my reply to both:

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Digital Journalism promises to monitor events in real-time. Journalists need to be aware of how they construct meanings and interpret situations. This shift suggests a post-positivist outlook, rather than the positivist viewpoint of traditional media (where the journalist strives for scientific objectivity by reporting both sides). A key for journalists is the ability to anticipate circumstances and situations.</p>

Mihai Nadin's Anticipation: The End Is Where We Start From (Lars Muller Publishers, 2003) is an extended essay on the role of Anticipation and its impact on the new sciences. The accompanying DVD splices together textual fragments and vivid imagery: a way to communicate the Foresight Principle (PDF) to a wider audience.

Here are some key quotes from Nadin's book:

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My hens are oblivious to Asia's avian flu crisis: they are more worried about the Australian summer heat and the 'clear and present danger' posed by a local fox. Matthew Sweet profiles the hen's impact on spirituality, literature, fast food outlets and celebrities. Fears of a human pandemic fit Susan Moeller's model of 'killer virus' reporting in the SARS outbreak of 2003 (PDF).

Stephen Mayne's Crikey, Australia's leading independent news and gossip site, recently published an article on the fate of Melbourne University's student union. One name stood out, so I wrote Mayne the following letter:</p>

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